Decision hygiene for CeOs

Written by Adrian Maharaj

(Views mine, not Google’s.)

Why it matters
Most executive mistakes aren’t from lack of IQ; they’re from process holes. Hygiene simple, repeatable checks removes predictable errors.

Four moves

1. Base rates (outside view). Ask, “What happened to 100 teams like ours?” Pull comparable cases and anchor to them before you build the inside view.
   • HBR: Before You Make That Big Decision. https://hbr.org/2011/06/the-big-idea-before-you-make-that-big-decision
   

2. Premortem. “It’s a year later; we failed why?” Surface risks early and design mitigations.
   • HBR: Performing a Project Premortem. https://hbr.org/2007/09/performing-a-project-premortem
   

3. Red‑team paragraph. Require the author (or a peer) to write the best counter argument in 150 words. Forces steel manning and reduces confirmatory drift.
   

4. Probabilities + scoring. State P(success), P(side effects), and P(timeline). After the horizon, Brier score your calibration; coach for accuracy, not bravado.
   • Brier explainer: https://library.virginia.edu/data/articles/a-brief-on-brier-scores
   • Superforecasting science: https://goodjudgment.com/about/the-science-of-superforecasting/
   

How it stays fast
Treat hygiene as a one page appendix to the decision memo. No appendix, no decision.

Outcome
Cleaner calls, fewer reversals, higher trust.