Receipts at the edge: Retail & Wallet Media Are Opening to Main Street

Written by Adrian Maharaj

(Views mine, not Google’s.)

Off‑site retail media will grow ~42% in 2025 more than 2× on site and Uber Ads just crossed a $1.5B run rate. These pipes aren’t replacing search; they’re feeding it with purchase proximate signals you can test. EMARKETERUber

Executive summary

Views are my own. Based on public sources. Complements not replacements for existing channels.

Retail & commerce media is having its “second door” moment. Beyond the big onsite search boxes, off site retail media is now the growth engine, helped by new pipes from wallets and last‑mile platforms into the open web. Recent moves PayPal Offsite Ads and PayPal Storefront Ads; Uber Advertising’s $1.5B run rate (Q1’25); DoorDash’s Symbiosys acquisition; and Instacart’s new Out of Aisle Impressions metric all point to the same thing: none of this replaces search or open web advertising. It complements them with purchase proximate signals you can test and measure. For context, off site RMN spend is projected to grow at ~2× the rate of on‑site through 2026.

What changed (and why it matters to a $10M–$500M operator)

1. Off‑site is outpacing on‑site. Independent trackers show off site retail media spend up ~42% in 2025, with the mix continuing to favor off‑site through 2026 (~2× on‑site). Translation: more inventory where your creative already runs (open web and CTV) but with retailer/wallet data behind it.

2. Wallets and last‑mile are now media. These businesses have real scale and keep adding formats near the transaction (ride credits, post checkout add ons, etc.). Uber Advertising surpassed a $1.5B annual run‑rate in Q1’25 and expanded Ride Offers globally; DoorDash bought Symbiosys to extend off‑site reach (search/social/display) with closed loop measurement (coverage).

3. Payments networks are stepping into audience building. PayPal Offsite Ads exports purchase proximate audiences across the open web, and Storefront Ads turn publisher units into shoppable storefronts checkout without leaving the page (Adweek).

4. Measurement is maturing (buyers want proof, not just reach). Marketers are pushing for privacy safe matching and standardized incrementality across retail media and the open web; Instacart’s Out of Aisle Impressions is one example of moving beyond last touch toward upper‑funnel quality (context).

Operator take: Treat retail & wallet media as distribution you rent when the audience and economics fit. Keep your search/open‑web/CTV spine; add pilots that sit closer to checkout and insist on lift you can defend.

Where marketplaces and embedded finance amplify the effect

Marketplace momentum matters because assortment and payout speed drive both shopper experience and ad usefulness. Example: Walmart Marketplace added sellers at a record pace in 2025, while J.P. Morgan’s embedded finance helps speed payments and improve cash flow visibility for sellers (Reuters). More in‑stock SKUs and healthier seller cash flow generally improve retail‑media performance; they don’t compete with it.

If you work with sellers: tie ad credits to operational readiness (in‑stock SLAs, on‑time fulfillment, wallet set‑up) that’s how media spend becomes real conversions.

Outside the US: why to watch India

• Ecommerce baseline is still accelerating. By 2028, nearly 1 in 10 rupees of retail spend in India is projected to be online.

• Quick‑commerce is turning ads into material revenue. Zepto’s ad ARR hit ~$200M (5× YoY); Blinkit reported ₹400+ crore in ad revenue in FY24 and set a ₹1,000 crore target for FY25; Instamart rolled out tiered onboarding/ad packages driven by high intent near checkout and SKU level placement.

• Wallets are now media pipes at national scale. PhonePe Ads and Paytm Ads let brands reach transacting users with reward formats and brand placements (see also Paytm Ads).

• Open networks are changing distribution. India’s ONDC continues to scale: official communications put registered sellers/service providers at 7.64 lakh (764,000+ as of Jan 2025), with network metrics published on an open dashboard.

• Telco + retail ecosystems are entering the ad stack. JioAds markets cross‑platform inventory (mobile, CTV, in store/OOH) with programmatic routes (alt).

12‑Month outlook: where retail & wallet media are heading

Off‑site acceleration. Expect more retailer and wallet audiences traveling to open‑web and CTV placements, with incrementality first reporting becoming the norm. (CTV retail‑media spend is forecast +43% in 2025.)

• Last‑mile and wallet surfaces mature. Loyalty, basket context, and post checkout units expand beyond grocery/QSR into pharmacy, convenience, and specialty retail still complementary to search/open web. (See Uber Ads scale; PayPal formats.)

• CTV convergence. Retailer and wallet segments reach the biggest screen with closed loop reads; frequency discipline and brand safety controls decide ROI.

• Creative becomes proof. Dynamic, feed driven units emphasize price, availability, and add on bundles; fewer “brand only” assets, more decision grade artifacts.

• Liquidity as infrastructure. Payout cadence and embedded finance become standard seller features on large marketplaces; healthier cash flow improves assortment and fulfillment, which improves media usefulness. (J.P. Morgan × Walmart.)

• Interoperability pressure. Clean, privacy safe measurement pipes and transparent incrementality methods become a buyer expectation across networks. (Instacart / incrementality.)

• Globalization. APAC and LATAM wallets, quick commerce, and marketplace ecosystems broaden surface area; the pattern remains: market access + privacy safe activation + operational SLAs.

Signals to watch (no vendor prescriptions required)

• Off‑site share: the % of retail/wallet powered spend that runs offsite (open web/CTV) vs onsite.

• Lift reporting mix: share of campaigns reported with incrementality (holdout/geo/matched) vs last touch.

• Self‑serve penetration: budget share deployable self‑serve with transparent controls.

• Availability gating: ad delivery respects OOS suppression & in stock thresholds.

• Frequency discipline: HH/MAID caps enforced across publishers; CPMs tied to incremental sales.

• Cash‑flow latency (marketplaces): median days from order to funds visible for sellers.

• Repeat & new‑to‑brand: rising share of NTB and a stable 30 day repeat curve.

• Creative throughput: time to ship feed driven, decision grade creative (price/availability/bundle).

What to expect as maturity arrives

Scenario A — Standards flywheel (bull). Offsite pipes harden, incrementality becomes default, and creative turns proof centric. Retail & wallet media earn a steady seat alongside search/open‑web/CTV; budgets rise as measurement confidence rises.

Scenario B — Fragmentation drag (base). Some networks move fast on measurement and controls; others lag. Buyers keep tests small and time boxed. Portfolio diversification protects outcomes while the market standardizes.

Scenario C — Ops bottleneck (bear). Assortment, stock health, or payouts lag. Media looks fine on paper but breaks in handoff. Budgets pause until operational SLAs catch up; channels that protect reliability keep the dollars.

Global context. In 2025, ~80.9% of global retail‑media spend sits in the US + China; ROW is gaining share, another reason to test multiple partners and geographies in parallel.

Views are my own. Based on public sources. Complements not replacements for existing channels. All figures as of Sept 8, 2025.